Week Ahead August 7th - 11th

• MON: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Industrial Output (Jun), EZ Sentix Index (Aug)
• TUE: EIA STEO, Chinese Trade Balance (Jul), German Final CPI (Jul), Canadian Trade Balance (Jul)
• WED: Chinese Inflation (Jul)
• THU: RBI Announcement, Banxico Announcement, OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Jul)
• FRI: IEA OMR, UK GDP (Jun), French/Spanish Final CPI (Jul), US PPI (Jul), US Uni...

• European bourses and US futures are modestly firmer with updates limited aside from numerous corporate developments pre-NFP
• AMZN +8.8% & AAPL -1.8% pre-market; Berkshire Hathaway reports on the weekend
• DXY is firmer but yet to lift above 102.50, Antipodeans outperform while havens pare some of their recent gains
• Fixed benchmarks dip to incremental WTD lows with the week’s bearish drivers still in play
• WTI and...

• APAC stocks traded mixed as most bourses in the region lacked firm direction after a lacklustre handover from the US
• Apple were lower by 2% after-hours as earnings once again showed declining sales, whilst Amazon was boosted by 8.7% following solid results
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed down by 0.7% yesterday
• DXY is flat just below the 102.50 mark...

• European bourses & US futures continue to slump in an extension of Wednesday’s price action with yields on the up
• EGBs/USTs continue to drop and have made new lows below the post-Refunding/Fitch trough, Gilts pressured further pre-BoE
• Further upside for the USD with JPY outperforming on haven action while EUR & GBP slip
• Commodities are in-fitting with the above risk tone and accompanying USD strength; complex is conscious of punchy...

• APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the weakness in global peers, albeit with some of the losses stemmed in Asia as participants digested Chinese Caixin PMI figures.
• European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 1.6% yesterday.
• DXY remains on the front foot, EUR/USD has moved lower on a 1.09 handle, Cable sits below 1.27 pre-BoE, JPY lags post-BoJ unscheduled bond-buying...

• European bourses & US futures are in the red as sentiment continues to deteriorate from the APAC/Wall St. handover
• Fitch cut the US' sovereign rating from AAA to AA+; Outlook revised to Stable from Watch Negative.
• DXY benefits from the soured tone with JPY outperforming while EUR & GBP prove relatively resilient to the USD
• EGBs are firmer and benefiting from haven allure with USTs bid as such and giving up some pre-Quarterly...

• APAC stocks traded lower following the mostly negative lead from Wall St where sentiment was dampened by higher yields and weak data
• Fitch cut US sovereign rating from AAA to AA+; Outlook revised to Stable from Watch Negative
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7% after the cash market closed down by 0.9% yesterday
• DXY is firmer and on a 102 handle, JPY leads the majors, antipodeans lag, EUR/USD...

• European bourses are in the red with initial catalysts light but sentiment deteriorating further alongside Final PMIs
• Stateside, futures also pressured but magnitudes are more contained ahead of manufacturing data
• DXY continues to climb to the detriment of G10 peers, AUD lags post-RBA maintained its Cash Rate
• EGBs slip despite deteriorating risk and welcome EZ PMI commentary re. inflation; USTs mixed
• Crude slumps as...

• APAC stocks were mostly higher following the positive lead from Wall St where the S&P 500 notched its 5th consecutive monthly gain.
• RBA maintained its Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.10% and noted that some further tightening of monetary policy may be required.
• AUD lags post-RBA, JPY is also on the backfoot, DXY oscillates around the 102 mark, EUR/USD sits just below 1.10.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with...

• European bourses are mixed/steady around the unchanged mark, with US futures following suit
• Action which follows mostly firmer APAC trade given Wall St. momentum, Chinese stimulus and despite mixed PMIs
• DXY is on the front-foot despite some month-end model predictions; JPY standout laggard while Antipodeans outperform
• Fixed income remains pressured though JGBs have steadied after unscheduled 5-10yr purchases, EGBs unreactive to Flash...

• APAC stocks headed into month-end mostly on the front foot as participants digested the latest support efforts from China and mixed PMI data.
• Chinese headline Manufacturing PMI slightly topped forecasts but remained in contraction territory and Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed with the slowest pace of increase since December 2022.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5% after the cash market closed up by 0.4% on...

Week Ahead July 31st - August 4th

• MON: Japanese Retail Sales (Jun), Chinese Official PMI (Jul), German Flash GDP (Q2), New Zealand Labour Cost Index (Q2)
• TUE: RBA Announcement, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Final PMI (Jul), German/EZ Unemployment Rates (Jul), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jul), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), New Zealand Jobs Report (Q2)
• WED: BCB Announcement, US ADP Employment (Jul)
• THU:...

• BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged but announced it will guide YCC more flexibly with fixed rate operations for 10yr JGB to be conducted at 1.0% (prev. 0.5%).
• At the post-meeting presser, BoJ Governor Ueda emphasised the need for continued monetary easing, stating that the bank is prepared to further ease policy if required.
• European equities are a mixed bag as the dust settles on yesterday’s ECB announcement and the overnight BoJ...

• BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged but announced it will guide YCC more flexibly with fixed rate operations for 10yr JGB to be conducted at 1.0% (prev. 50bps).
• APAC stocks are mixed with underperformance in the Nikkei 225 as markets digest the fallout from the BoJ.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed up by 2.3% yesterday.
• JPY is the standout outperformer in...

• European bourses in the green in a continuation of APAC trade with a blockbuster earnings docket influencing
• US futures firmer and the NQ outperforms following Meta’s after-hours report, META +8.3%
• DXY pressured to near 100.50 with EUR & JPY taking advantage ahead of their rate decisions, Antipodeans lead given risk sentiment
• Crude benchmarks bid intraday given risk & USD, with both precious and base metals...

• The Fed hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%, as expected, with the statement a copy & paste job from June.
• Markets initially perceived the presser as dovish after Powell avoided committing to future rate hikes and stressed a data-dependent approach.
• US equity futures edged higher overnight with NQ boosted by Meta shares post-earnings, APAC stocks were also firmer.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro...

• European bourses are generally subdued with the Euro Stoxx 50 weighed on by LVMH -4.4%
• Stateside, futures are more contained pre-FOMC and as participants digest after-hours MSFT & GOOGL updates
• DXY continues to slip amid ongoing JPY strength with EUR benefitting as the three regions near policy announcements; AUD lags post-CPI
• Crude benchmarks a touch softer intraday after Tuesday’s multi-month peaks with base metals in-fitting, XAU...

• APAC stocks traded mixed with most bourses lacking firm direction heading into the FOMC later today.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY was contained on a 101 handle, EUR/USD languished below 1.11, Cable eyes 1.29, AUD soft post-CPI.
• Softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia supported the argument for the RBA to continue its...

Summary: The Fed is widely expected to hike rates 25bps in July, taking the target for the Federal Funds Rate to 5.25-5.50%. Markets, and the majority of economists, expect this to be the peak of the hiking cycle, despite Fed guidance for two more rate rises this year (including July). Therefore, attention will lie heavily on any guidance from Powell in his press conference, but he is likely to reiterate a data-dependent approach and not commit to any future decisions, noting they will be taking each meeting as...

• European bourses & US futures are incrementally positive ahead of numerous key earnings from both sides of the pond
• DXY slipped to 101.18 before deriving support from an Ifo/ECB BLS driven hit to the Euro, AUD leads pre-CPI
• Core benchmarks are modestly pressured as earlier upside dissipates despite a strong DMO sale, US 5yr due
• German Ifo shows a return to growth contraction in Q3 while the ECB survey illustrates the ongoing impact of...

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid a rally in Chinese stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges.
• European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY is a touch softer but remains on a 101 handle, EUR/USD is stuck below 1.11, AUD marginally outperforms.
• Crude futures held on to most of their recent spoils after climbing to 3-month highs...

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid a rally in Chinese stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges.
• European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY is a touch softer but remains on a 101 handle, EUR/USD is stuck below 1.11, AUD marginally outperforms.
• Crude futures held on to most of their recent spoils after climbing to 3-month highs...

• ECB policy announcement due Thursday 27th July; rate decision at 13:15BST/08:15EDT, press conference from 13:45BST/08:45EDT
• Consensus and market pricing look for a 25bps hike, taking the deposit rate to 3.75%
• Focus will fall on clues over the ECB's tightening ambitions beyond July

OVERVIEW: The ECB is anticipated to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, according to market pricing and analysts' consensus. The...

• European bourses are mixed with Flash PMIs flagging increased recession risks while Spain lags after Sunday’s stalemate
• Stateside, futures modestly firmer with the NQ in-fitting ahead of the special rebalance coming into effect
• DXY benefits from EUR & GBP pressure on disappointing PMIs while JPY regroups after further sources
• Crude benchmarks bolstered by the initial readout from China’s Politburo; base metals relatively unreactive while...

• APAC stocks traded mostly positive but with gains capped ahead of upcoming key risk events.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.4% on Friday.
• DXY tested 101 to the downside, EUR/USD and Cable sit on 1.11 and 1.28 handles respectively, JPY marginally outperforms.
• None of the individual parties, nor the left or right blocs were able to secure a majority in...