• US President Biden reached a budget agreement in principle with House Speaker McCarthy to raise the debt limit by 19 months until 1st January 2025
• In FX, DXY initially softened overnight alongside a downtick in US yields but then recovered against its major peers and as the CNY continued to depreciate; US equity futures saw mild gains
• In geopolitics, Russia launched a large drone attack on Kyiv over the weekend, while it was recently reported two residential...

• MON: US Memorial Day, UK Late May Bank Holiday.
• TUE: Japanese Labour Market Report (Apr), EZ Sentiment Survey (May).
• WED: Japanese Retail Sales (Apr), Chinese Official PMIs (May), Australian CPI (Apr), French, Italian, German Prelim CPI (May), German Unemployment (May), Canadian GDP (Q1).
• THU: ECB Minutes, CBRT Minutes, South Korea Import/Exports Growth (May), Chinese Final Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May), German Retail Sales (Apr),...

• Risk tone has slipped as we await substantive debt ceiling updates into the long weekend
• DXY is softer, but remains above 104.00, with CHF and JPY outperforming
• EGBs/Gilts slipped on UK Retail data, but have since pared with USTs bid on the above tone
• Commodities edging higher given the USD and XAU benefitting from sentiment
• McCarthy said there was no agreement Thursday; will stay to continue work. Biden said they...

• APAC stocks traded mixed following the mild positive bias stateside where the tech sector surged on Nvidia’s blockbuster report
• Nikkei 225 outperformed, US equity futures were rangebound, and European equity futures are indicative of a flat open
• US President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are said to be near a deal that would raise the debt ceiling for two years and cap spending
• US House Speaker McCarthy said there was no agreement on...

• NQ outperforms post-NVDA, with Europe deriving upside in tandem though capped after German GDP revisions
• Stateside, debt ceiling concerns continue with focus on Fitch though journalist updates since have been somewhat constructive on talks
• USD remains dominant with the DXY above 104.00 with NZD descending further after Orr’s remarks
• EGBs/USTs continue to slip though Gilts remains the standout laggard in a continuation of the UK-CPI...

• APAC stocks were mostly lower with the region cautious after the losses on Wall St owing to debt ceiling fears, whilst Fitch placed the US on Credit Watch Negative.
• Nasdaq futures surged as NVIDIA (NVDA) shares rallied almost 25% after the close as earnings and forecasts beat expectations
• The FOMC May minutes were in fitting with recent Fed commentary and showed that officials were somewhat split on support for more rate hikes
• European...

• European bourses are under marked pressure as headwinds mount while US futures are lower but more contained awaiting debt ceiling developments
• Overall, updates via journalists this morning are skewed to the downside on a near-term agreement
• Hawkish impulses were seen on hot UK CPI, with core fixed income pressured & BoE pricing lifting
• Though, Bunds & USTs have reverted back to modest positive territory as focus returns to potential...

• APAC stocks were mostly lower following the negative lead from Wall St and amid US-China frictions.
• The US House China Select Committee Chair called for retaliation against China’s ban on Micron.
• US GOP Rep. McHenry said the top-line disagreement remains on spending and he cannot say when negotiations will resume.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed down by 1.0%...

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• RBNZ expected to hike the Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 5.50% on Wednesday as forecast by 21 out of 25...

• European bourses are pressured on continuing Manufacturing PMI softness alongside hawkish pricing implications
• Stateside, futures are essentially flat as we await further substantive debt ceiling updates and remarks from Fed’s Powell
• Biden said he is optimistic on making debt ceiling progress; McCarthy described the meeting as a productive discussion
• DXY is underpinned and benefitting further from EUR & GBP weakness post-PMIs while the...

• APAC stocks were indecisive as participants digested the latest from the debt limit negotiations.
• US House Speaker McCarthy said he had a productive agreement with President Biden but they don't have an agreement yet.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Unch. after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY is steady on a 103 handle, FX ranges are narrow across G10 FX, EUR/USD lingers just...

• European bourses are mixed/flat with US futures diverging slightly with the ES & NQ pressured by Meta and Micron.
• Broader focus remains firmly on the debt ceiling after constructive weekend updates ahead of an expected Biden-McCarthy talk today (time TBC).
• DXY holds above 103.00 with the CHF outperforming and peers otherwise generally contained
• EGBs remain bid with the periphery outperforming after Greek elections and rating updates for...

• APAC stocks were mostly positive but with price action rangebound amid cautiousness as the debt limit deadline draws closer.
• President Biden said his discussion with House Speaker McCarthy on Sunday went well and they will talk again on Monday.
• Fed’s Kashkari (voter) said he is open to foregoing a June rate hike but would object to any kind of declaration that they are done lifting rates.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat open...

Week Ahead May 22-26th

• SUN: Greek Elections
• MON: PBoC LPR Announcement
• TUE: BoK Announcement, EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (May), US Richmond Fed (May)
• WED: FOMC Minutes, RBNZ Announcement, UK Inflation (Apr), German Ifo Survey (May)
• THU: CBRT Announcement, SARB Announcement, German GDP (Q1), GfK Consumer Sentiment (Jun), US GDP 2nd (Q1)/PCE Prices (Q1)
• FRI: Japanese...

• European bourses/US futures are firmer with fresh drivers limited and the focus firmly on Fed speak
• Debt ceiling reports indicate steady progress is being made, a view echoed by White House officials; Biden to leave G7 dinner early
• USD retreats from multi-weak peaks amid a Yuan revival to the benefit of G10s pre-Powell
• EGBs have seen two-way action but are holding off early German PPI-induced lows, USTs comparably more...

• APAC stocks were mostly higher following the tech-led gains on Wall St where the Nasdaq outperformed and the S&P 500 printed a 9-month high.
• US President Biden held a call with the debt ceiling negotiation team and his team said that steady progress is being made in talks.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4% after the cash market closed up 1.0% yesterday.
• DXY sits above the 103.50 mark...

• European bourses continue the positive Wall St/APAC action, with action slightly limited by Ascension Day
• Stateside, futures edge into the green but are largely continuing sideways action ahead of WMT and substantive debt updates
• DXY picks up to the detriment of peers as the Yuan falls further and AUD lags on jobs data
• EGBs descend further with yield levels in focus while USTs are more contained pre-data/Fed...

• APAC stocks were higher as the region took its cue from the momentum on Wall Street, although some of the gains were capped as participants digested soft data releases.
• US House Speaker McCarthy said he is optimistic about the ability to work together and said a debt ceiling deal by Sunday is doable.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7% after the cash market closed up 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY sits...

• European bourses & US futures are incrementally firmer in somewhat limited trade with corporate updates factoring and the focus on debt talks
• DAX 40 outperforms amid strength in Siemens & SAP; region follows mixed APAC trade, though Nikkei 225 surpassed 30k
• Overall, debt ceiling updates were slightly constructive, but the impasse does ultimately remain
• DXY briefly topped 103.00 as the Yuan continues to slip on soft data to the...

• APAC stocks were mixed with the region cautious after the weak handover from the US where risk appetite was clouded amid debt ceiling concerns.
• The meeting between Biden and congressional leaders achieved no major breakthroughs although was said to be productive and has set the stage to carry on further conversations.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat open with the Euro Stoxx 50 unchanged after the cash market closed flat...

• European bourses are relatively contained, but off best after downbeat/mixed ZEW
• US futures spent the morning rangebound though have similarly dipped post-HD earnings, -4% pre-market
• President Biden is to meet McCarthy at 15:00ET/20:00BST, Yellen to speak beforehand
• DXY continues to retreat despite initial fleeting upside with G10s firmer, GBP picks up after weak labour data
• AUD, Yuan and base metals are dented by...

• APAC stocks traded mixed and only partially sustained the momentum from Wall St, while markets also digested weaker-than-expected Chinese activity data.
• US President Biden has scheduled a debt limit meeting with US House Speaker McCarthy on Tuesday at 15:00EDT/20:00BST.
• European equity futures are indicative of an uneventful open with the Euro Stoxx 50 unchanged after the cash market closed flat yesterday.
• DXY is steady below 102.50, EUR/USD...

• European bourses & US futures are firmer but with magnitudes modest amid limited specific newsflow
• DXY dips below 102.50 with its initial upside diminishing as peers are generally firmer ex-JPY while core debt drifts
• US President Biden said that debt ceiling talks are moving along and they will know more in the next couple of days about progress in discussions.
• SEK and TRY depreciate after soft inflation & inconclusive Turkish...

• APAC stocks traded mixed following the subdued performance last Friday on Wall St, while participants in the region brace for this week’s key economic releases.
• European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed up 0.2% on Friday.
• DXY sits near Friday's highs, JPY lags the majors, antipodeans outperform, EUR/USD remains on a 1.08 handle.
• US President Biden said that...

• MON: Eurogroup Meeting, South Korean Trade Balance R (Apr), German Wholesale Prices (Apr), EZ Industrial Production (Mar).
• TUE: IEA OMR, Chinese Retail Sales (Apr)/Industrial Production (Apr), UK Labour Market Report (Mar/Apr), EZ Employment and GDP Flash (Q1), German ZEW (May), US Retail Sales (Apr), Canadian CPI (Apr), US Industrial Production (Apr).
• WED: Japanese GDP (Q1), Australian Wage Price Index (Q1), EZ CPI Final...