US ELECTION UPDATE

As things stand, the outcome of the US election is finely poised: early doors, the ‘Biden playbook’ was seen, but as the former Vice President failed to take some of the key states he would have needed to in order to put the election to bed on the night (Southern states are still up in the air, while key state Florida is too close to be called), there was a shift in betting markets which pivoted and began pricing Trump as favorite to retain the Presidency. However, even that impulse...

• As things stand, the outcome of the US election is finely poised
• Early doors, the ‘Biden playbook’ was seen, but as the former Vice President failed to take some of the key states, there was a shift in betting markets
• However, even that impulse could not be sustained with some of the key swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) unlikely to have their results declared any time soon
• The key takeaway, however, is that Trump has performed better than polls guided, while Biden has not made as...

• US futures are supported, but off highs with ES +1.2% as the DXY dips (-0.4%) and USTs curve bear-steepens
• FiveThirtyEight projects Biden has an 89% chance of winning the election vs. 10% chance for President Trump & a CNBC poll has Biden ahead of Trump in 6 battleground states
• The RBA cut rates by 15bps as expected and announced an AUD 100bln boost to its QE programme; Governor Lowe pushed back on neg. rates
• PayPal beat on EPS & revenue but are subdued in the pre-market as no preliminary...

• Asian equity markets were higher across the board after following suit from the gains on Wall St
• The RBA cut rates by 15bps as expected and announced an AUD 100bln boost to its QE programme
• Governor Lowe noted that the RBA has not run out of firepower but also pushed back against the prospect of negative rates
• In FX markets, the DXY slipped back below 94.00, providing some reprieve to major counterparts
• Looking ahead, highlights include Turkish CPI, US ISM New York, Factory Orders and...

• European bourses are bolstered this morning, shrugging off initial COVID-19 tentativeness
• Additionally, Chinese official manufacturing & non-manufacturing and Caixin manufacturing PMIs all exceeded expectations
• Reports noted that UK & EU Brexit negotiators were zeroing in on a solution to break the deadlock on fishing access
• UK PM Johnson announced a 1-month lockdown across England from November 5th through to December 2nd
• Monmouth poll shows Biden's lead in Pennsylvania narrows to...

• Asian equity markets traded with cautious gains and US stock index futures were choppy amid tentativeness moving into a risk-packed week
• Chinese official manufacturing & non-manufacturing and Caixin manufacturing PMIs all exceeded expectations
• Reports noted that UK & EU Brexit negotiators were zeroing in on a solution to break the deadlock on fishing access
• UK PM Johnson announced a 1-month lockdown across England from November 5th through to December 2nd
• In FX markets, the DXY...

• European bourses have pared back the US-induced downside post multiple large-cap earnings in the after market; ES -0.7%, NQ -1.2%
• Nasdaq is weighed on in-spite of Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook and Twitter all beating on top and bottom lines
• Elizabeth Warren is reportedly set to request to become Joe Biden’s Treasury Secretary in the event that the former VP wins the upcoming election, Politico
• EZ Q3 GDP beat substantially, as flagged by President Lagarde yesterday while headline flash CPI was...

• Asian equity markets weakened heading into month-end and after US stock index futures faded the recovery seen on Wall Street
• Disappointment was observed in the wake of big tech earnings despite Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook and Twitter all beating on top and bottom lines
• ECB sources stated that policymakers debated tools for the next stimulus package on Thursday in which some favoured more bond purchases under PEPP, some preferred TLTRO adjustments and others a mix of both
• In FX, they DXY...

• European cash indices have been choppy but futures have staged a modest recovery after yesterday’s COVID-19 concerns amid the busiest day of earnings season for Q3
• However, crude has continued to deteriorate throughout the morning dropping below multiple key figures
• Regeneron (REGN) COVID-19 outpatient trial prospectively demonstrates that its antibody cocktail REGN-COV2 significantly lowered virus levels
• House Speaker Pelosi has sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin listing all the areas that...

• Asian equity markets traded mostly lower following the bloodbath on Wall St where all major indices declined by more than 3%
• BoJ maintained policy settings as expected and continued to signal a lack of urgency for immediate support
• Regeneron (REGN) COVID-19 outpatient trial prospectively demonstrates that its antibody cocktail REGN-COV2 significantly lowered virus levels
• In FX markets, the DXY held on to most of yesterday’s gains above 93.00, EUR/USD hovers around 1.1750 and GBP/USD maintains 1.30...

• European indices are posting substantial losses, Stoxx 50 -2.5%, but off lows of some -3.5% earlier in the session; stateside, ES -1.3%
• Concern around COVID-19 has intensified with France & Germany reportedly to implement lockdown restrictions imminently
• US House Speaker Pelosi said Democrats are continuing to work on regarding COVID-19 relief legislation
• Crude is pressured on general sentiment and demand-side concerns with Zeta re-intensifying to a Hurricane unable to offset this
• FX...

• Asian equity markets lacked firm direction following the mixed performance of stateside peers as earnings season and the upcoming election provided a cautious setting
• US stock index futures were further pressured after-hours on European shutdown concerns after reports stated France and Germany were mulling nationwide lockdowns
• DXY strengthened and broke back above the 93.00 level as the greenback benefitted from the cautious risk tone
• Reports state that Senate Majority Leader McConnell expressed...

• European bourses are subdued this morning, Stoxx 50 -0.5%, as selling pressure resumed post-cash open; stateside, ES +0.3%
• European Banks are bolstered after earnings from HSBC & Santander with oil & gas performing well post-BP and as Hurricane Zeta is set to re-strengthen
• FX features a mixed USD but the DXY is still firm above the 93.00 mark with JPY seemingly exerting pressure on the index as sentiment slips; other peers are relatively contained vs. USD
• Germany Economy Minister says that...

• Asian equity markets resumed the weak performance seen across global peers which culminated in Wall St’s worst day in over a month
• In FX markets, the DXY surrendered the 93.00 level overnight, providing mild support for its major counterparts
• US congressional committees have reportedly made some progress, but not enough to make a stimulus deal anywhere near imminent, according to sources
• US Senate voted 52 vs. 48 to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett's nomination to the Supreme Court
• Looking...

• Indices have started the week on the backfoot with substantial losses given COVID-19 concerns & heavyweight SAP posting disappointing earnings
• SAP (-19.0%) missed on revenue cut FY20 guidance and pushed out 2023 targets by two-years; Stoxx 600 tech sector -5.3%
• France and Italy reported record surges in daily infections, whilst Spain announced a state of emergency
• AstraZeneca’s (+0.8%) COVID-19 vaccine is said to have triggered protective antibodies and T-cells in the elderly
• FX features...

• Asian equity markets began the week lacklustre and US equity futures were pressured with risk appetite subdued by the deteriorating COVID-19 situation in Europe
• France and Italy reported record surges in daily infections, whilst Spain announced a state of emergency
• AstraZeneca’s COVID vaccine is said to have triggered protective antibodies and T-cells in the elderly
• In FX, DXY was slightly firmer and edged closer towards the 93.00 level, EUR/USD slipped below 1.1850, GBP/USD retained 1.30...

• European bourses are posting modest gains this morning, Stoxx 50 +1.0%, after well-received banking updates & manufacturing PMI upside overshadowing services slumping further
• Stateside, ES +0.2%, NQ U/C, DJIA +0.3%
• Markets saw little reaction to the final Presidential Debate with US equity futures, the Dollar and UST futures steady throughout the whole broadcast as the two participants largely stuck to their scripts
• Intel reported after-market, -9.5% in pre-market, raising FY guidance with...

• APAC stocks traded mostly in the green following a modestly positive lead from Wall Street
• The final Presidential Debate prompted little market action, but was overall structured, civilised and touched upon policy
• US President Trump said a COVID-19 vaccine is ready and will be announced in the coming weeks, but it is not a guarantee; Gilead’s Remdisivir received FDA approval
• NEC Director Kudlow said differences in COVID relief talks between the White House and House Democrats are not likely to get...

• European bourses are subdued this morning, Stoxx 50 -0.2%, but off lows with fundamental updates sparse and US futures posting similar declines; ES -0.2%
• Differences continue to narrow but more work needs to be done on US stimulus and Pelosi & Mnuchin will speak again today
• US FBI Director said US has identified Russia and Iran to have taken action to interfere with the election; Russia have since denied this
• Tesla printed a new sales record and posted its 5th consecutive quarter of profit,...

• Asia-Pac equities traded with losses across the board as the region took its cue from the downbeat Wall Street handover
• Differences continue to narrow in US stimulus talks but more work needs to be done. Pelosi and Mnuchin will speak again today, according to her aide
• US FBI Director said US has identified Russia and Iran to have taken action to interfere with the election
• In FX, DXY retraced some of yesterday’s losses, EUR/USD fell below 1.1850, Cable held onto 1.3100, USD/CNH drifter...

• European bourses are pressured this morning in-spite of limited fundamental updates, Stoxx 50 -0.9%; stateside, futures are off lows, ES +0.1%
• House Speaker Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are moving closer to a deal and will speak later today; however, McConnel sees a vote on a deal prior to the election as unlikely
• Netflix, -5.1%, beat on EPS but missed revenue and subscriber addition expectations for the quarter
• FX features a desolate USD moving further below the 93.00 mark in DXY terms;...

• APAC stocks were mostly higher after a modestly firm handover from Wall Street; Mainland China underperformed
• US House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are moving closer to a stimulus deal and will speak again today, according to her aide
• Senate Majority Leader McConnell reportedly told Senate on Tuesday that he has warned the White House not to make a big stimulus deal before the election
• AstraZeneca (AZN LN) COVID-19 vaccine trial in the US is expected to resume as early as this week,...

• European bourses are mixed to flat in a relatively lacklustre session thus far while US futures remain supported, ES +0.7% ahead of the Democrats stimulus deadline
• US Chief of Staff Meadows spoke with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on COVID-19 relief, said there has been progress but no breakthrough yet
• Moderna (MRNA) CEO said its COVID-19 vaccine could get authorisation for emergency use in December, contingent on positive interim results in November, WSJ
• EU Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier & UK...

• Major APAC indices traded lower across the board after Wall Street suffered another down day
• US Chief of Staff Meadows spoke with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on COVID-19 relief, said there has been progress but no one is "popping the champagne corks yet"
• EU's Chief Brexit Negotiator Barnier has reportedly given no indication that the bloc is prepared to cede to UK PM Johnson's demands regarding concessions to get a deal, particularly on fishing
• OPEC+ panel made no recommendation on Monday to change...

• European bourses are firmer but off highs (Stoxx 50 +0.6%) with fundamental newsflow light and focus on Pelosi’s stimulus deadline; ES +0.7%
• House Speaker Pelosi said she is optimistic on a COVID-19 relief bill before the election. Pelosi gave a 48-hour deadline to the Trump admin
• Chinese Q3 GDP missed Exp. but activity measures topped forecasts
• Chinese government officials are warning the US they may detain US nationals in China in retaliation to the Justice Department’s prosecution of...