• MON: Eurozone M3 Money Supply, US Good Trade Balance, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.
• TUE: Tokyo CPI, German Import Price Index, US S&P Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, US Pending Home Sales.
• WED: Australian CPI, Swedish Confidence, German Labour Market Report, Regional and National CPI, Consumer Confidence (F), ADP Employment, BoC Rate Decision, FOMC Rate Decision.
• THU: Australian Building Approvals, Chinese Manufacturing...

• MON: Swedish Unemployment, EZ Industrial Production.
• TUE: RBA Minutes, Chinese Inflation, South Korean Trade, UK Labour Market, German ZEW, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, NZ CPI.
• WED: BoK Rate Decision, UK & EZ Inflation, EZ Trade, US Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, US Business Inventories, TIC Flows.
• THU: Australian Labour Market, Swiss Trade, UK Retail Sales, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philly Fed, Industrial Production,...

• MON: Japanese GDP, Germany Trade Balance, UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Trade Balance, EZ Sentix Investor Confidence,
• TUE: Chinese & Norwegian Inflation, Norges Bank Regional Survey, UK Labour Market Report, US NFIB Small Business Optimism, Canadian Housing Starts, Building Permits, US JOLTS
• WED: Swedish CPI, US PPI, Wholesale Trade Sales, Polish Rate Announcement, OPEC Monthly Report
• THU: Swedish...

• SUN: NZ Trade
• MON: UK Bank Holiday, German IFO, US Durables, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
• TUE: German GDP (2nd), Hungarian Rate Decision, US House Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index
• WED: GFK Consumer Climate, EZ M3 Money Supply, Israeli Rate Decision
• THU: NZ ANZ Business Confidence, Australian CAPEX, German Import Prices, Norwegian GDP, German...

• MON: Japanese Trade Balance, EZ CPI,
• TUE: Swiss Trade Balance, German PPI, Norwegian GDP, Canadian Manufacturing Sales, RBA Minutes
• WED: Norwegian Unemployment, South African CPI, Canadian CPI, US Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
• THU: EZ & US Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs, Swedish Unemployment, EZ Consumer Confidence, NZ Retail Sales, ECB Minutes
• FRI: Japanese National CPI, Canadian Retail Sales, US...

• MON: N/A
• TUE: German CPI, UK Labour Market Report, German ZEW, US CPI.
• WED: Australian Wage Price Index, Chinese Industrial Production, Retail Sales, German GDP, Swedish CPI, UK CPI, PPI and RPI, EZ GDP.
• THU: Australian Employment Report, Norges Bank, UK Retail Sales, US Philly Fed, NY Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Industrial Production.
• FRI: OPEC Monthly Report, Eurozone Trade Balance, US Building...

• MON: Germany IP; BOI; Aus NAB confidence; China social financing.
• TUE: EIA STEO; US JOLTs.
• WED: Powell testimony; FOMC mins; BOC MPR; China CPI; UK GDP, trade data, IP.
• THU: US CPI; OPEC MOMR, Sweden CPIF.
• FRI: China trade.

• SUN: Istabul Election re-run
• MON: German Ifo Survey
• TUE: RBNZ Monetary Policy meeting, Hungarian Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting, US Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Meeting minutes
• WED: US Durable Goods
• THU: Banxico Monetary Policy meeting, US GDP Final, Core PCE (Final), EZ Sentiment
• FRI: G20, Japanese CPI and Unemployment, UK GDP, US Consumption and Uni. Of...

• WEEKEND: G20 finmin/cbank heads meet.
• MON: US to impose tariffs on Mexico; UK Tory leadership campaign starts; Japan GDP; UK GDP, Manufacturing; Canada housing.
• TUE: EIA STEO, UK jobs report
• WED: China CPI, US CPI, CBRT.
• THU: OPEC MOMR.
• FRI: IEA oil report, CBR.

G20 FINMIN/CBANKS HEAD MEETING (WEEKEND):

Ahead of the leaders’ summit on 28-29 June, G20 finance ministers and central bank officials will meet on the weekend at Fukuoka in...

• MON: Swiss CPI, Turkish CPI, EZ, US/UK mfg PMI, US ISM mfg, construction spending, NZ trade
• TUE: RBA, UK cons PMI, EZ CPI & unemployment, US factory orders, Aus GDP
• WED: EZ, UK & US services PMI, EZ PPI, retail sales, US ADP, ISM non-mfg, NBP, Aus Trade
• THU: German factory orders, RBI & ECB, EZ employment & GDP (F), US trade, unit labor costs, nonfarm productivity, Canadian trade
• FRI: Swiss unemployment, German & French trade, German IP, US & Canadian labor market...

• MON: UK and US Market Holiday.
• TUE: Hungary rate decision.
• WED: BOC rate decision, German Jobs Report, Richmond Fed.
• THU: Aussie Building Approvals, CAPEX; NZ Budget; US GDP, Pending Home Sales.
• FRI: Japanese jobs data, Tokyo CPI, industrial output; BOK rate decision; German retail sales, CPI; US personal spending, core PCE, Michigan; Canadian GDP

• SUN: JMMC meeting
• MON: Japan GDP
• TUE: RBA mins, US/Japan trade talks
• WED: FOMC mins, Japan trade balance, UK CPI
• THU: ECB mins, SARB, EZ flash PMI, German Ifo
• FRI: Japan CPI, US durable goods, UK retail sales, Trump to visit Japan
• SUN: European Parliamentary Election Results

• MON: Norway GDP.
• TUE: OPEC MOMR, Swedish CPIF, Germany ZEW Survey, China IP, UK jobs data, BCB mins.
• WED: US retail sales, IEA Oil Market Report, EZ GDP (2nd reading), Germany Prelim GDP, Canadian CPI, US IP.
• THU: Banxico, Aus jobs data, Indonesian rate decision, Eurogroup meeting.
• FRI: EZ CPI (Final), US auto tariff decision.

• Mon: Easter.
• Tue: Flash PMIs, EZ flash consumer confidence.
• Wed: BOC rate decision, ECB bulletin.
• Thu: BoJ rate decision, Riksbank & CBRT rate decisions, US durable goods.
• Fri: Japanese labour data & retail sales, US advance GDP, Final Michigan confidence.
• Sun: Spanish General Election.

• Monday: US Factory Orders
• Tuesday: EU General Affairs Council, EIA STEO
• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, ECB, OPEC MOMR, UK GDP, US CPI, Trump to meet South Korea President Moon, EU Brexit Summit
• Thursday: IEA Oil Market Report, Indian Elections Start, US PPI
• Friday: Revised Brexit date (TBC), Eurozone Industrial Production, Uni of Mich (prelim)

• Monday: US New Home Sales, Apple Event.
• Tuesday: US Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence.
• Wednesday: RBNZ.
• Thursday: SARB, US GDP (final), Eurozone final Consumer Confidence, US Pending Home Sales, Banxico, Japan Labour market & Retail Sales.
• Friday: UK was scheduled to withdraw from EU; UK GDP; US PCE; Canada GDP; Uni of Michigan (final).

• Monday: Eurogroup meeting
• Tuesday: Brexit Meaningful Vote (TBC), ECOFIN meeting, UK GDP, US CPI
• Wednesday: Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI
• Thursday: BoJ Rate Decision, US Retail Sales
• Friday: Eurozone CPI (final), NY Fed Mfg, Uni of Michigan (Prelim), US JOLTS (Jan), US Industrial Production

Monday: US Wholesale Inventories

• Monday:
• Tuesday: UK Labour Market Report, RBA Minutes, German ZEW Survey, Japan Trade Balance
• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, US Housing Starts, US Building Permits, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Flash)
• Thursday: ECB Mins, Aussie Labour Report, Philly Fed, US Existing Home Sales, US & Eurozone Markit Flash PMIs, Japan CPI
• Friday: Eurozone CPI (Final), Riksbank Minutes

• Monday: Turkish CPI, UK Construction PMI, Eurozone PPI, US Factory Orders
• Tuesday: Australian Trade, RBA Rate Decision, Eurozone (F), UK and US Services PMIs, Eurozone Retail Sales, Canadian Trade, US ISM Non-Manufacturing,
• Wednesday: US Trade, Australian Jobs Report
• Thursday: BoE Rate Decision, Minutes & QIR, RBI & Banxico Rate Decision,
• Friday: German Trade, Norwegian GDP, Canadian Jobs

Mon: Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence, China GDP & Retail Sales

Week In Focus; week commencing 8 October 2018

Key Events

• Bank of England expected to lift its base rate by 25bps from 0.50% to 0.75%; vote split expected to be 7-2
• Recent UK data points and MPC rhetoric has lead to markets pricing in a circa 80-90% chance of a hike
• Little in the way of material changes are expected for inflation and growth forecasts with the economy having developed largely in-fitting with the MPC’s expectations

• Bank of England expected to lift its base rate by 25bps from 0.50% to 0.75%; vote split expected to be 7-2
• Recent UK data points and MPC rhetoric has lead to markets pricing in a circa 80-90% chance of a hike
• Little in the way of material changes are expected for inflation and growth forecasts with the economy having developed largely in-fitting with the MPC’s expectations