Summary: The Fed is widely expected to hike rates 25bps in July, taking the target for the Federal Funds Rate to 5.25-5.50%. Markets, and the majority of economists, expect this to be the peak of the hiking cycle, despite Fed guidance for two more rate rises this year (including July). Therefore, attention will lie heavily on any guidance from Powell in his press conference, but he is likely to reiterate a data-dependent approach and not commit to any future decisions, noting they will be taking each meeting as...

• ECB policy announcement due Thursday 27th July; rate decision at 13:15BST/08:15EDT, press conference from 13:45BST/08:45EDT
• Consensus and market pricing look for a 25bps hike, taking the deposit rate to 3.75%
• Focus will fall on clues over the ECB's tightening ambitions beyond July

OVERVIEW: The ECB is anticipated to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, according to market pricing and analysts' consensus. The...

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• BoE rate decision and minutes due Thursday 22nd June 2023 at...

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• RBNZ expected to hike the Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 5.50% on Wednesday as forecast by 21 out of 25...

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Expectations are for the BoE to deliver a 25 basis points hike in the Base Rate to 4.5%, according to 55 out of 56 analysts surveyed by Reuters. Market pricing concurs, with 25 basis points priced at around 85%. Dovish dissent from Tenreyro and Dhingra is expected once again...

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The consensus among analysts and market pricing is that the ECB will opt for a 25bps hike in the Deposit Rate to 3.25%. Policymakers have indicated that the options are between a 25bps and 50bps hike, with the aim of bringing inflation back to target. Considering the political nature of the...

• Bourses in Europe extended on the losses seen at the cash open and trade lower across the board
• US equity futures have also been hit in tandem with the surge in global yields; NQ underperforms
• US 10yr yield rose further above 1.50%, the 20yr topped 2.00% and the UK 10yr hit 1.00% for the first time since March 2020
• Advances in the crude complex saw Brent Nov contract reach USD 80/bbl, although volume and open interest has migrated to...

• SUN: JMMC meeting
• MON: Japan GDP
• TUE: RBA mins, US/Japan trade talks
• WED: FOMC mins, Japan trade balance, UK CPI
• THU: ECB mins, SARB, EZ flash PMI, German Ifo
• FRI: Japan CPI, US durable goods, UK retail sales, Trump to visit Japan
• SUN: European Parliamentary Election Results

• Expectations unanimously are set on an unchanged rate of 0.75%, with focus set on the accompanying statement
• HSBC cite lower global rate expectations as one of the major stumbling points for the Norges Bank’s rate path
• ING do not believe that this will be enough to stop the March hike amid recovering oil prices and the prosperous local economy.

• Bank of England expected to lift its base rate by 25bps from 0.50% to 0.75%; vote split expected to be 7-2
• Recent UK data points and MPC rhetoric has lead to markets pricing in a circa 80-90% chance of a hike
• Little in the way of material changes are expected for inflation and growth forecasts with the economy having developed largely in-fitting with the MPC’s expectations

• Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
• Not much in the way of fireworks expected given last month’s policy adjustments
• Draghi likely to be mindful of trade tensions and grilled on timing of rate lift-off  

Key Events

• SNB is expected to stand pat on policy rate at -0.75%, with little change anticipated to the policy statement
• The central bank is likely to reiterate its commitment to FX intervention in order to offset any unwanted appreciation of the “highly valued” CHF

• Norges Bank to publish its rate decision and new economic projections at 09:00 BST
• Rates expected unchanged
• Growth, inflation profiles may be revised up
• Central bank expected to stick to its hawkish stance

• Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged
• Will the ECB unveil their blueprint for winding down their PSPP or will they ‘kick the can down the road’ to July?
• Questions likely to be raised on the Bank’s view surrounding the latest developments in Italian politics
• Macro projections likely to see oil prices curtail 2018 growth...