• Sunday: Spanish Election.
• Monday: EZ consumer confidence; US PCE/personal spending.
• Tuesday: German unemployment; EZ flash Q1 GDP, regional EZ CPIs; Canada GDP; US consumer confidence, pending home sales, Chicago PMI; NZ employment.
• Wednesday: Europe Labour Day Holiday; UK, US mfg PMI; US ADP employment, construction spending, ISM mfg, FOMC.
• Thursday: China Caixin mfg PMI; EZ mfg PMI; UK construction PMI;...

• Mon: Easter.
• Tue: Flash PMIs, EZ flash consumer confidence.
• Wed: BOC rate decision, ECB bulletin.
• Thu: BoJ rate decision, Riksbank & CBRT rate decisions, US durable goods.
• Fri: Japanese labour data & retail sales, US advance GDP, Final Michigan confidence.
• Sun: Spanish General Election.

• Monday: US Factory Orders
• Tuesday: EU General Affairs Council, EIA STEO
• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, ECB, OPEC MOMR, UK GDP, US CPI, Trump to meet South Korea President Moon, EU Brexit Summit
• Thursday: IEA Oil Market Report, Indian Elections Start, US PPI
• Friday: Revised Brexit date (TBC), Eurozone Industrial Production, Uni of Mich (prelim)

• Monday: ISM Mfg, Mfg PMIs, EZ CPI, US Retail Sales, Construction Spending.
• Tuesday: RBA, EZ Unemployment, US Durable Goods.
• Wednesday: Services PMI; ISM non-Mfg; China Vice Premier Liu travels to US for trade talks; Aus Trade Balance; US ADP.
• Thursday: RBI, US Challenger Job Cuts, US and Canadian Labour Market Reports.
• Friday: No major releases.

• Monday: US New Home Sales, Apple Event.
• Tuesday: US Durable Goods, Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence.
• Wednesday: RBNZ.
• Thursday: SARB, US GDP (final), Eurozone final Consumer Confidence, US Pending Home Sales, Banxico, Japan Labour market & Retail Sales.
• Friday: UK was scheduled to withdraw from EU; UK GDP; US PCE; Canada GDP; Uni of Michigan (final).

• Monday: Eurogroup meeting
• Tuesday: Brexit Meaningful Vote (TBC), ECOFIN meeting, UK GDP, US CPI
• Wednesday: Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI
• Thursday: BoJ Rate Decision, US Retail Sales
• Friday: Eurozone CPI (final), NY Fed Mfg, Uni of Michigan (Prelim), US JOLTS (Jan), US Industrial Production

• Mon: US Construction Spending (Dec)
• Tue: RBA, Spanish Parliament dissolves, EZ final PMIs, EZ Retail Sales, US ISM non-Mfg, PMIs, US New Home Sales (Dec)
• Wed: BoC, Fed's Beige Book, Aussie GDP, US & Canada Trade Balance (Dec), US Factory Orders, US New Home Sales (Jan)
• Thu: ECB, Aussie Retail Sales & Trade Balance, US & Canada Trade Balance (Jan)
• Fri: US & Canadian Labour Market Report

Monday: US Wholesale Inventories

Tuesday: US Housing Starts, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Fed, Powell Senate testimony, Fed Discount Minutes, NZ Trade

Wednesday: Brexit vote, US Durables, US Factory Orders, Pending Home Sales, Powell House testimony, Canadian CPI, BoK Rate Decision

Thursday: US GDP, Chicago PMI, Swedish GDP, German CPI

Friday:  US PCE, ISM Mfg PMI, Construction Spending, Auto Sales , German Employment,  Eurozone PMI (F), Canadian GDP

• Monday:
• Tuesday: UK Labour Market Report, RBA Minutes, German ZEW Survey, Japan Trade Balance
• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, US Housing Starts, US Building Permits, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Flash)
• Thursday: ECB Mins, Aussie Labour Report, Philly Fed, US Existing Home Sales, US & Eurozone Markit Flash PMIs, Japan CPI
• Friday: Eurozone CPI (Final), Riksbank Minutes

• Mon: China Caixin Services PMI, UK GDP, Eurogroup meeting
• Tue: OPEC Monthly Report, RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Japanese PPI
• Wed: Riksbank Interest Rate Decisions, UK CPI, EU Industrial Production, US CPI, Japanese GDP
• Thu: Brexit Meaningful Vote, Indonesian Interest Rate Decision, US PPI, Eurozone GDP & Employment, China Trade Balance
• Fri: China CPI, UK Retail Sales, Eurozone Trade Balance, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Uni of Michigan

• Monday: Turkish CPI, UK Construction PMI, Eurozone PPI, US Factory Orders
• Tuesday: Australian Trade, RBA Rate Decision, Eurozone (F), UK and US Services PMIs, Eurozone Retail Sales, Canadian Trade, US ISM Non-Manufacturing,
• Wednesday: US Trade, Australian Jobs Report
• Thursday: BoE Rate Decision, Minutes & QIR, RBI & Banxico Rate Decision,
• Friday: German Trade, Norwegian GDP, Canadian Jobs

• Monday: BoJ Minutes, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Final), New Zealand Trade Balance
• Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence, US Case Shiller, Japan Retail Sales
• Wednesday: FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Australia CPI, US Pending Home Sales, US-China trade talks
• Thursday: US PCE (TBC), US Chicago PMI, China PMIs, Eurozone GDP Flash & Unemployment, Canadian PPI, Japan Labour Report, US-China trade talks
• Friday: EZ (F), UK, US mfg PMIs, US NFP, ISM mfg PMI, Uni. Of Michigan

Mon: Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence, China GDP & Retail Sales

Tue: UK Labour Report, US Existing Home Sales, NZ CPI, Hungary rate decision, US Existing Home Sales, Japan Trade Balance

Wed: BoJ, Canadian Retail Sales, Australia PMIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Thu: ECB, Norges Bank, Australia Labour Report, Eurozone & US PMIs, Japan CPI

Fri: US Durable Goods, New Home Sales

Week In Focus; week commencing 8 October 2018

Sunday: Brazilian Election

Monday: Chinese Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone Sentiment Index

Tuesday: Japanese Current Account

Wednesday: Australian GDP, US PPI, UK Monthly GDP, Production & Trade Balance

Thursday: US CPI, Japanese PPI, ECB Minutes

Friday: Eurozone Industrial Production, Chinese Trade Balance, Pastor Brunson court decision, US Banks kick off US earnings season

ITALIAN BUDGET

Last week...

Key Events

Monday: Eurozone CPI

Tuesday: N/A

Wednesday: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, UK CPI, New Zealand GDP

Thursday: SNB Interest Rate Decision, Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision, EU leaders expected to discuss Brexit

Friday: Japan CPI, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs (Flash), Canada CPI

Sunday: JMMC meeting in...

Week In Focus:

Key Events

Sunday: Swedish election

Monday: Japan GDP (Revised), China CPI, Norway CPI, UK Monthly GDP (Jul)

Tuesday: OPEC and non-OPEC technical committee to meet, UK Jobs Data, Germany ZEW Survey

Wednesday: Eurozone Employment, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Thursday: ECB Interest Rate Decision, BoE Interest Rate Decision, CBRT Interest Rate Decision,...

Key Events

Monday: UK Market Holiday, German Ifo Survey

Tuesday: US Trade Balance

Wednesday: French GDP, US GDP (2nd Reading), US Pending Home Sales

Thursday: German Labour Market, German CPI (Prelim), US PCE, Canadian GDP (Quarterly)

Friday: Japan Labour Market, Tokyo CPI, China PMI, EZ CPI (Prelim)

TRADE

The US trade war continues to be...

Key Events

Monday: German PPI

Tuesday: RBA Minutes

Wednesday: NZ Retail Sales, Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales, FOMC Minutes

Thursday: Norway GDP, EZ PMI (Flash), ECB Minutes, Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium begins, US PMI (Flash), US tariffs on USD 16bln of Chinese goods take effect

Friday: NZ Trade Balance, Japan CPI, German GDP (2nd reading), US Durable...

Key Events

Monday: North and South Korea to hold “high-level” talks

Tuesday: China Industrial Production, German ZEW Survey, German & EZ GDP, UK Labour Market, Home Depot earnings

Wednesday: UK CPI, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, Cisco earnings

Thursday: Australian Labour Market, Norges Bank Rate Decision, UK Retail Sales, US Housing Starts & Building Permits, Walmart...

Monday: German Factory Orders

Tuesday: RBA Rate Decision, German Industrial Production, US JOLTs

Wednesday: China Trade Balance

Thursday: RBNZ Rate Decision, China CPI, US PPI, US and Japan to hold bilateral trade talks

Friday: Japan GDP, Norway CPI, Swedish CPI, UK GDP, US CPI, Canadian Labour Market

Key Events

Monday: Swedish GDP, German CPI (Prelim), US Pending Home Sales

Tuesday: Japan Labour Market, China PMI, BoJ Decision, German Labour Market, EZ CPI, EZ GDP, US PCE, Canadian GDP, US SOMA Redemptions, Apple Earnings

Wednesday: NZ Labour Market, EZ Manufacturing PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI, US ADP Employment Change, US Quarterly Refunding Announcement, US ISM Manufacturing, FOMC Decision, Brazil Rate...

Monday: US Existing Home Sales

Tuesday: EZ & US Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Flash)

Wednesday: AU CPI, GE IFO Survey, US New Home Sales, EU’s Juncker visits the US

Thursday: ECB Decision, US Durable Goods

Friday:  Tokyo CPI, US GDP (Prelim reading)

Key Events

Monday: Chinese GDP, Trump/Putin Summit, US Retail Sales

Tuesday: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, UK Labour Market, US Industrial Production, US TIC Flows, Fed Chair Powell’s Semi-Annual Testimony

Wednesday: UK CPI, EZ CPI (Final), US Housing Starts & Building Permits

Thursday: Australian Labour Market, UK Retail Sales

Friday: Japanese CPI, Canadian...

Monday: German Trade Balance

Tuesday: German ZEW Survey, UK Industrial Production, UK GDP (Monthly)

Wednesday: BoC Interest Rate Decision & MPR, US PPI

Thursday: US CPI, German CPI (Final), ECB Minutes

Friday: Chinese Trade Balance, JPM, Wells Fargo and Citi report earnings

Central Banks

At the June meeting the Fed expectedly hiked interest rates by 25bps, however, the median now sees four hikes in 2018 from three previously. The decision was perceived as relatively hawkish as the Fed also dropped their reference that it expected interest rates to be below neutral for “some time”. Nevertheless, markets are still not fully believing the Fed and pricing for four rate hikes this year stands below 50%. Markets will be looking out for comments in...