74th UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY (23-27 SEP):

Attention will be on meetings that take place on the sidelines of next week's UN confab, particularly any meetings between US and Iranian officials, following last week's attacks on Saudi energy facilities, where from a US perspective, the blame has fallen on Iran. However, the chances of an official meeting between the two sides has faded after the attacks. Iran, which denies involvement in the attacks, has said that talks with the US cannot take place unless all...

• Asian equity markets were mixed following the negative close last Friday on Wall St. amid temperamental US-China trade headlines
• Trump reiterated he does not need a deal before the 2020 election and is not interested in a limited China deal
• Reports suggest that repair work for Saudi to return to normal oil output levels could take much longer than expected
• US Secretary of State Pompeo said the US is still seeking to avoid war with Iran but added that additional troops being deployed to the region...

• European bourses are firmer this morning in largely tentative trade as markets pause after a hectic week
• NY Fed announced a fourth consecutive overnight repo operation of USD 75bln at a minimum bid rate of 1.8% for Friday at 0815-0830 ET
• Fed’s Bullard says he dissented as a large cut is more appropriate, cites soft PCE & signs the economy is to slow soon
• The FX space is similarly tentative with the USD little changed vs. G10 counterparts
• Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail...

• Asian equity markets traded mostly positively as risk appetite picked up from the indecision seen on Wall St
• US President Trump advisor Michael Pillsbury said the President is ready to escalate the trade war if a deal is not agreed soon and that tariffs could go to 50% or 100%
• EU Commission President Juncker said he thinks there can be a Brexit deal and that Brexit will happen
• Saudi-led coalition conducted a military operation in Yemen in which it destroyed 4 locations used for assembling...

• European indices are modestly firner post-Fed and as most G10 central banks have met, with BoE ahead
• In Central Bank activity, BoJ & SNB unchanged, SNB did not alter their CHF assessment while Norges Bank hiked but likely the last hike in the near term
• Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif threatened ‘all out war’ in the event of an Iranian military strike
• In FX, CHF is outperforming post SNB while AUD is the laggard vs. USD after poor overnight data
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Philly...

• Fed cut rates by 25bps for a 2nd consecutive meeting as expected with three dissenters; Rosengren and George voted for no change again, Bullard voted for a 50bps cut
• Dot plots showed a median view for a pause through to next year which left a hawkish aftertaste amongst US asset classes
• BoJ maintained all policy settings as expected and forward guidance to keep current extremely low rates for extended period at least through Spring 2020
• Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic Rate by 50bps to 5.50% as...

• Major European bourses are trading tentatively ahead of today’s key risk events with the FOMC ahead
• Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry are to update on evidence of Iranian weapon usage today (15:30BST) and IEA’s Birol is to speak on recent developments at 14:00BST
• In FX, the USD is King thus far, mainly on the underperformance of G10 counterparts with Sterling subdued on EU comments and soft CPI
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Canadian CPI, New Zealand GDP, FOMC...

• Asian equity markets traded tentatively following the cautious gains on Wall St amid positioning heading into a flurry of central bank activity
• NY Fed are to to conduct another USD 75bln overnight repo today between 1315-1330BST at a minimum bid rate of 2.10% (unchanged from Tuesday
• Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz said oil supply is fully back online and that it will keep full oil supply to its customers this month
• Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry will conduct a press conference today which will...

• Asian equity markets traded tentatively following the cautious gains on Wall St amid positioning heading into a flurry of central bank activity
• NY Fed are to to conduct another USD 75bln overnight repo today between 1315-1330BST at a minimum bid rate of 2.10% (unchanged from Tuesday
• Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz said oil supply is fully back online and that it will keep full oil supply to its customers this month
• Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry will conduct a press conference today which will...

• European bourses are tentative awaiting updates to the Saudi situation as Saudi Energy Minister is to speak at 18:00/18:15BST and tomorrow’s FOMC
• WTI and Brent have slipped somewhat but hold onto a significant amount of their recent gains, US Energy Secretary Perry says they will take a wait and see stance to SPR
• In FX, the SEK and AUD underperform post minutes with the DXY little changed overall but firmer than most G10 counterparts
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Industrial Production,...

• Asian equity markets were mostly lower following a subdued lead from Wall St where the S&P 500 slipped back below the 3k milestone and the DJIA snapped an 8-day win streak
• US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the US is determined to reach a real agreement with China but also noted there is still plenty of work to be done
• UK PM Johnson will unveil his new plan for the Irish backstop next week to EU leaders on the sidelines of the UN general assembly
• US President Trump said that he is in...

• European bourses are softer given the deterioration in risk tone, Brent and WTI are significantly stronger and safe havens are benefiting as well
• Two Saudi refineries were hit by drone attacks which cut as much as 5.7mln bbls of output or about half of Saudi's daily production, reports indicate this may have been the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
• On the attacks, US President Trump tweeted there is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification from Saudi...

FOMC PREVIEW (WED)

Ahead of the 'blackout' window, Fed Chair Jerome Powell had the opportunity to guide market pricing for the 18th September FOMC, but struck an upbeat tone on the economy, essentially signalling that he was comfortable with market pricing which is weighted in favour of a 25bps rate cut to 1.75-2.00%, as opposed to the more aggressive 50bps, which some members of the FOMC have called for (voter James Bullard argued a cut of that magnitude would help align rates with the market). No doubt,...

• Asian equity markets began the week cautiously as oil prices surged and geopolitical concerns heightened following drone attacks on Saudi refineries
• Disappointing Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, as well as this week’s heavy slate of central bank activity added to the tentative tone
• WTI crude futures surged briefly towards USD 64.00/bbl and Brent crude rallied by as much as 20% following the attack on the Saudi facilities
• US pointed the blame on Iran in which US President Trump...

• European equities are firmer this morning on positive US-China updates, though gains are relatively marginal
• China State Council will exclude some agricultural products including soybeans and pork from additional tariffs on US goods
• US President Trump said he would rather get a whole deal with China than an interim deal but suggested that he would consider an interim trade deal with China
• In FX, Sterling shines on DUP comments while EUR continues to strengthen post-ECB, albeit off of best...

• Asian equity markets traded higher as the positive tone rolled over from Wall St where the major indices edged mild gains amidst the improving trade climate
• US President Trump said he would rather get a whole deal with China than an interim deal but suggested that he would consider an interim trade deal with China
• DUP could agree to Northern Ireland accepting some EU rules post-Brexit as part of a deal to replace the Irish Backstop
• DXY is essentially flat heading into the week’s end on a quiet...

• US President Trump announced he is to delay the next round of tariffs on USD 250bln of Chinese goods to October 15th from October 1st
• China’s MOFCOM say Chinese firms have begun inquiring on prices for US farm purchases and China and US are in communication regarding high-level talks
• OPEC+ are holding discussions over whether to enhance compliance with oil cuts according to sources, though Russian Energy Minister Novak says its too early for the discussion on extending this to 2020
• EUR/USD remains...

     Asian equity markets were mostly higher as the region sustained the momentum from Wall St with the S&P 500 back above 3000 and the DJIA above 27k

·        US President Trump has delayed the next round of tariffs on USD 250bln of Chinese goods to October 15th from October 1st

·        Global Times noted comments that the postponement does not mean a big improvement as talks...

• European equities are firmer this morning supported by China releasing a US tariff exemption list, subsequently Commerce Ministry noted that certain agreements may be reached prior to October meeting
• US President Trump says Fed should cut rates to zero or less, and then US should refinance its debt
• Amazon (AMZN) are to be probed by antitrust officials in the US regarding their Marketplace platform
• Scottish Court has ruled that PM Johnson's proroguing of parliament is illegal
• Looking ahead,...

• Asian equity markets eventually traded mostly higher as the region shrugged-off the indecision from Wall St
• China is ready to sweeten deal by buying American goods in countdown to trade war talks according to SCMP sources
• UK MPs seeking to block a no-deal are reportedly examining ways to bring back a version of former PM May’s Brexit deal with a 2nd referendum attached
• US President Trump said he has removed National Security Advisor John Bolton and that he disagreed strongly with some of Bolton's...

• European indices are slightly softer but overall little changed as markets await a substantial catalyst ahead of Thursday’s ECB
• US President Trump reiterated that China wants to talk, and it was also reported that China is hopeful US can create conditions for trade talks
• USD remains little changed vs. G10 counterparts though SEK & NOK remain subdued on domestic factors
• Looking ahead, highlights EIA STEO, APIs, BoE’s Carney & Riksbank’s Ingves, US 3yr...

• Asian equity markets traded mixed, following suit from the indecisive tone seen on Wall St
• Chinese inflation metrics were largely influenced by a 10% increase in food prices amid the swine fever epidemic, PPI saw its sharpest contraction in 3 years
• US President Trump reiterated that China wants to talk whilst it was also reported that China is hopeful US can create the conditions for trade talks
• MPs scuppered PM Johnson’s attempt for a snap election just before Parliament began its 5-week...

• European indices are little changed and lacking direction thus far this morning [Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%] ahead of a quiet slate for the day
• Sterling is strong ahead of today’s hectic UK Parliament schedule, which may well be the last until October 14th
• Apple (AAPL) and Foxconn have reportedly violated a Chinese labour rule through the use of around 50% temporary workforce in a Chinese plant during August
• Looking ahead, highlights include Norges Bank’s Matsen and UK...

• MON: Japanese GDP, Germany Trade Balance, UK Industrial & Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, Trade Balance, EZ Sentix Investor Confidence,
• TUE: Chinese & Norwegian Inflation, Norges Bank Regional Survey, UK Labour Market Report, US NFIB Small Business Optimism, Canadian Housing Starts, Building Permits, US JOLTS
• WED: Swedish CPI, US PPI, Wholesale Trade Sales, Polish Rate Announcement, OPEC Monthly Report
• THU: Swedish...

• Asian equity markets traded mostly positively with gains capped by soft trade metrics from China and ongoing unrest in Hong Kong
• UK PM Johnson has reportedly drawn up a plan to legally sabotage a Brexit extension if MPs vote against holding a general election
• Saudi Arabia removed Energy Minister Al-Falih from his position and replaced him with Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud
• Fed Chair Powell provided a relatively upbeat view of the economy which suggested a lack of urgency for a...