Week Ahead July 31st - August 4th

• MON: Japanese Retail Sales (Jun), Chinese Official PMI (Jul), German Flash GDP (Q2), New Zealand Labour Cost Index (Q2)
• TUE: RBA Announcement, Chinese Caixin Manufacturing Final PMI (Jul), German/EZ Unemployment Rates (Jul), EZ/UK/US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jul), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), New Zealand Jobs Report (Q2)
• WED: BCB Announcement, US ADP Employment (Jul)
• THU:...

• BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged but announced it will guide YCC more flexibly with fixed rate operations for 10yr JGB to be conducted at 1.0% (prev. 0.5%).
• At the post-meeting presser, BoJ Governor Ueda emphasised the need for continued monetary easing, stating that the bank is prepared to further ease policy if required.
• European equities are a mixed bag as the dust settles on yesterday’s ECB announcement and the overnight BoJ...

• BoJ kept monetary policy settings unchanged but announced it will guide YCC more flexibly with fixed rate operations for 10yr JGB to be conducted at 1.0% (prev. 50bps).
• APAC stocks are mixed with underperformance in the Nikkei 225 as markets digest the fallout from the BoJ.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed up by 2.3% yesterday.
• JPY is the standout outperformer in...

• European bourses in the green in a continuation of APAC trade with a blockbuster earnings docket influencing
• US futures firmer and the NQ outperforms following Meta’s after-hours report, META +8.3%
• DXY pressured to near 100.50 with EUR & JPY taking advantage ahead of their rate decisions, Antipodeans lead given risk sentiment
• Crude benchmarks bid intraday given risk & USD, with both precious and base metals...

• The Fed hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%, as expected, with the statement a copy & paste job from June.
• Markets initially perceived the presser as dovish after Powell avoided committing to future rate hikes and stressed a data-dependent approach.
• US equity futures edged higher overnight with NQ boosted by Meta shares post-earnings, APAC stocks were also firmer.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro...

• European bourses are generally subdued with the Euro Stoxx 50 weighed on by LVMH -4.4%
• Stateside, futures are more contained pre-FOMC and as participants digest after-hours MSFT & GOOGL updates
• DXY continues to slip amid ongoing JPY strength with EUR benefitting as the three regions near policy announcements; AUD lags post-CPI
• Crude benchmarks a touch softer intraday after Tuesday’s multi-month peaks with base metals in-fitting, XAU...

• APAC stocks traded mixed with most bourses lacking firm direction heading into the FOMC later today.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY was contained on a 101 handle, EUR/USD languished below 1.11, Cable eyes 1.29, AUD soft post-CPI.
• Softer-than-expected inflation data from Australia supported the argument for the RBA to continue its...

Summary: The Fed is widely expected to hike rates 25bps in July, taking the target for the Federal Funds Rate to 5.25-5.50%. Markets, and the majority of economists, expect this to be the peak of the hiking cycle, despite Fed guidance for two more rate rises this year (including July). Therefore, attention will lie heavily on any guidance from Powell in his press conference, but he is likely to reiterate a data-dependent approach and not commit to any future decisions, noting they will be taking each meeting as...

• European bourses & US futures are incrementally positive ahead of numerous key earnings from both sides of the pond
• DXY slipped to 101.18 before deriving support from an Ifo/ECB BLS driven hit to the Euro, AUD leads pre-CPI
• Core benchmarks are modestly pressured as earlier upside dissipates despite a strong DMO sale, US 5yr due
• German Ifo shows a return to growth contraction in Q3 while the ECB survey illustrates the ongoing impact of...

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid a rally in Chinese stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges.
• European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY is a touch softer but remains on a 101 handle, EUR/USD is stuck below 1.11, AUD marginally outperforms.
• Crude futures held on to most of their recent spoils after climbing to 3-month highs...

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid a rally in Chinese stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges.
• European equity futures are indicative of a marginally softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY is a touch softer but remains on a 101 handle, EUR/USD is stuck below 1.11, AUD marginally outperforms.
• Crude futures held on to most of their recent spoils after climbing to 3-month highs...

• ECB policy announcement due Thursday 27th July; rate decision at 13:15BST/08:15EDT, press conference from 13:45BST/08:45EDT
• Consensus and market pricing look for a 25bps hike, taking the deposit rate to 3.75%
• Focus will fall on clues over the ECB's tightening ambitions beyond July

OVERVIEW: The ECB is anticipated to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, according to market pricing and analysts' consensus. The...

• European bourses are mixed with Flash PMIs flagging increased recession risks while Spain lags after Sunday’s stalemate
• Stateside, futures modestly firmer with the NQ in-fitting ahead of the special rebalance coming into effect
• DXY benefits from EUR & GBP pressure on disappointing PMIs while JPY regroups after further sources
• Crude benchmarks bolstered by the initial readout from China’s Politburo; base metals relatively unreactive while...

• APAC stocks traded mostly positive but with gains capped ahead of upcoming key risk events.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.4% on Friday.
• DXY tested 101 to the downside, EUR/USD and Cable sit on 1.11 and 1.28 handles respectively, JPY marginally outperforms.
• None of the individual parties, nor the left or right blocs were able to secure a majority in...

• Sun: Spanish Elections.
• Mon: EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Jul).
• Tue: German Ifo Survey (Jul), NBH Announcement, Richmond Fed (Jul).
• Wed: FOMC Announcement, Australian CPI (Jun).
• Thu: ECB Announcement, US GDP Advance/PCE (Q2).
• Fri: BoJ Announcement & Outlook Report, French Flash CPI (Jun), Spanish Flash CPI (Jun), EZ Business Confidence Survey (Jul), US PCE...

• BoJ sources around YCC spark marked dovish reaction in JPY and JGBs, which has filtered through to broader assets
• DXY back above 101.00 with USD/JPY testing 142.00; action which eroded GBP’s retail-driven upside
• European/US equity benchmarks relatively contained, Tech hit by SAP while NQ benefits from yield action
• JGB upside briefly lifts peers with EGBs/USTs struggling for direction while Gilts slip on data
• Crude...

• US stocks mostly tumbled with the declines led by the Nasdaq 100 which posted its second worst day of the year.
• APAC stocks were mixed as further support efforts from China partially offset the headwinds from Wall St.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.3% yesterday.
• DXY held onto yesterday's gains, EUR/USD and Cable sit on 1.11 and 1.28 handles...

• European bourses are firmer though TSMC’s results have pressured Tech and the Euro Stoxx 50/AEX by extension; SAP due today
• Stateside, NQ lags given pre-market downside in NFLX & TSLA post-earnings
• AUD bolstered by jobs data, Yuan rebounds and EUR underpinned by yields with DXY drifting
• Core benchmarks pullback as Wednesday’s Gilt-driven move eases; yields firmer, short-end leading
• Crude is little changed while...

• APAC stocks traded mixed following on from the choppy performance stateside as participants digested data and corporate earnings.
• Apple (AAPL) is racing to develop its own generative AI tools to catch OpenAI, according to Bloomberg.
• European equity futures are indicative of a slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% yesterday.
• DXY sits just above the 100 mark, AUD leads the majors...

• European bourses & US futures are contained, with Real Estate leading while Base Resource names lag
• FTSE 100 outperforms after cooler-than-expected UK CPI, with Gilts bid, GBP dented and BoE pricing moving in favour of 25bp
• As such, GBP lags to the USD’s benefit while JPY approaches 140.0 and antipodeans lag
• Gilts outperform with an initial sympathy move for USTs and EGBs fading, the latter further after tepid...

• US stocks were bid with outperformance in the Russell 2000 amid strong gains in the regional banking ETF.
• APAC stocks were mixed as the ongoing China economic woes partially offset the constructive lead from Wall St.
• European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.2% after the cash market closed up by 0.3% yesterday.
• DXY has reclaimed the 100 level, EUR/USD maintains 1.12 status, JPY lags the majors...

• European bourses & US futures are contained ahead of earnings and data
• Within Europe, pre-market action was dominated by Q2 updates with Novartis’ results lifting its sector & the SMI
• DXY remains pressured but has found support around Friday’s trough with EUR, GBP & JPY appreciating
• Fixed income has extended its recovery rally heading towards MTD peaks, though Gilts off best after weak issuance
• USD and...

• APAC stocks were mostly lower after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St where tech and small caps outperformed.
• US President Biden is weighing new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices, according to Bloomberg.
• European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday.
• DXY remains sub-100.00, EUR/USD hovers around 1.1250, Cable...

• European risk tone is hampered by mixed China data and subsequent cuts to the nations FY23 growth view by various desks
• Stateside, action is more contained with the docket relatively sparse ahead of Tuesday’s key earnings & with Fed blackout underway
• Crude benchmarks have returned to APAC lows on China & resumption of Libyan production, intersected by marked upside on a since withdrawn alert
• USD is pressured with havens outperforming...

• APAC stocks began the week subdued as participants digested mixed economic growth and activity data from China.
• Chinese GDP was firmer than expected QQ but disappointed YY, while Industrial Production topped estimates and Retail Sales missed.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5% after the cash market closed up by 0.2% on Friday.
• DXY is contained just below the 100 mark, EUR/USD has maintained...