Week Ahead 15-19th January

• SAT: Taiwanese Elections.
• MON: Iowa Republican Caucuses, Eurogroup Meeting, Davos WEF Begins (15th-19th); Indian WPI (Dec), German Wholesale Price Index (Dec), Swedish CPIF (Dec), EZ Trade (Nov)
• TUE: German Final CPI (Dec), ZEW (Jan), Norwegian GDP (Nov), US NY Fed Manufacturing (Jan), Canadian CPI (Dec)
• WED: OPEC MOMR; UK CPI (Dec), US Import/Export Prices (Dec), Retail Sales (Dec),...

• European equities are markedly firmer with sectoral performance led by geopolitical tensions and a negative Burberry update; US mixed into bank earnings
• US & UK conducted a joint strike against Houthi targets in Yemen, which has led to marked upside in Crude; Brent back above USD 80/bbl
• Dollar is marginally firmer awaiting US PPI, Antipodeans firmer in-fitting with the risk tone
• Treasuries are unchanged whilst EGBs are modestly firmer...

• APAC stocks traded mixed with the major indices mostly rangebound alongside geopolitical concerns and Chinese data.
• US and UK conducted a joint strike against Houthi targets in Yemen.
• Chinese trade data either improved or topped forecasts, while inflation figures were mixed but ultimately deflationary on a Y/Y basis.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.7% after the cash market closed lower by...

• Equities are firmer, though have been dipping lower as attention turns to US CPI and geopolitics intensify
• Oil tanker (St. Nikolas) has reportedly been boarded by Iranians in the Gulf of Oman; prompting crude upside and denting risk appetite somewhat
• Dollar is flat and Yen falls back below the 145.50 level; Kiwi outperforms benefitting from AUD/NZD cross
• Bonds bid though within ranges, benchmarks seemingly capped by energy upside ahead of US...

• APAC stocks followed suit to the gains stateside despite the lack of major catalysts as markets await US CPI.
• Fed's Williams says more work is needed to bring inflation back to target; can cut rates when confident inflation is moving to 2%.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures +0.6% after the cash market closed flat yesterday.
• Bitcoin retreated from resistance near USD 47,000 and failed to...

• European equities and US futures are mixed, having spent much of the early session in the green; the FTSE 100 (-0.4%) is weighed on by losses in Sainsbury’s
• Dollar is softer and EUR is modestly firmer, with several upside OPEX strikes for the Single-Currency
• Bonds are bid, though still unable to pare back all of Tuesday’s advances
• Crude is softer, Gold and Base Metals are firmer amid a subdued Dollar
• Looking ahead,...

• APAC stocks mostly declined after the flimsy handover from Wall St and tentativeness ahead of key inflation data and earnings.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.4% on Tuesday.
• DXY is steady above the 102.50 mark, USD/JPY is approaching 145 following soft Japanese wage data.
• Australian monthly CPI data was softer than expected but remained well...

• European equities and US futures are modestly weaker; Russell (-0.9%) underperforms giving back yesterday’s advances
• Dollar is incrementally firmer, Yen continues to make up ground
• Bonds are modestly pressured, Gilts got a slight boost after a strong Gilt auction
• Crude extends gains as it attempts to pare back the prior day's losses and amid geopolitical tailwinds
• Looking ahead, US International Trade, Canadian...

• APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the gains on Wall Street where tech outperformed.
• Fed's Bowman said policy appears to be sufficiently restrictive, Bostic reiterated his call for 2 x 25bps rate cuts this year.
• European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures +0.3% after the cash market closed up by 0.5% on Monday.
• DXY is a touch softer but maintaining 102 status, JPY is the marginal...

• European and US Futures are modestly lower, amid the broader negative risk tone
• Boeing -8.5% pre-market after the FAA ordered a grounding/inspection of 737 Max 9 operated by US airlines
• Dollar holds within a tight range; Antipodeans lag & JPY bid in-fitting with the risk-averse environment
• Bonds divergent, with Treasuries holding around flat whilst Bunds dip lower
• Crude is markedly lower alongside base metals,...

• APAC stocks gradually deteriorated following a muted start and last Friday’s post-data whipsawing stateside.
• US House Speaker Johnson said congressional leaders reached a spending level deal in which the topline figure for FY24 is USD 1.6tln.
• European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.2% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% on Friday.
• DXY contained sub-102.50, JPY the marginal G10...

• MON: Swiss CPI (Dec), EZ Retail Sales (Nov), Sentix (Jan), Japanese Tokyo CPI (Dec), Chinese Trade Balance (Dec).
• TUE: EIA STEO; German Industrial Output (Nov), US NFIB (Dec).
• WED: CNN Republican Debate; Norwegian CPI (Dec), Chinese CPI/PPI (Dec), Chinese M2 (Dec).
• THU: US CPI (Dec), IJC (w/e 5th Jan), Japanese Current Account (Nov).
• FRI: UK GDP (Nov), US PPI Final Demand (Dec), Canadian Housing Starts...

• US Equities post losses but to a lesser magnitude than their European counterparts, as attention turns to US NFP
• Dollar is firmer and Yen continues its losing run; Antipodeans lower amid a subdued risk tone
• Bunds initially lifted on softer German Retail Sales, though entirely pared the move ahead of key US data; unreactive to Flash EZ HICP
• WTI and Brent are firmer on reports that the US is drafting plans to respond to Houthi...

• APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the earlier positivity gradually waned despite a lack of major newsflow.
• DXY traded in a tight range but briefly breached 102.50 to the upside, USD/JPY inched closer towards 145 before waning, and EUR/USD was subdued after falling under 1.0950.
• Crude futures were firmer whilst Politico sources suggested the US is drafting plans to hit back at Iran-backed Houthi militants.
• South Korea ordered an...

• European bourses and US Futures extend modest gains, though the Russell outperforms paring back the prior day’s hefty losses
• Dollar is softer and the Pound gains post-final PMI revisions, EUR bid on PMIs with German inflation due; Yen continues its losing streak
• Bonds weaken as attention turns to US data; hawkish reaction after Final PMI revisions
• Crude benchmarks are firmer as Middle East tensions continue alongside USD downside, XAU also...

• US stocks again saw losses on Wednesday with the Russell 2k heavily underperforming, with two-way action seen on the release of an overall balanced FOMC minutes.
• FOMC Minutes stated that participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak. Several participants observed that circumstances might warrant keeping the policy rate at the current level longer than they currently anticipate.
• APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the risk aversion...

• European bourses post significant losses despite limited fresh newsflow, whilst US Futures are negative albeit to a lower magnitude awaiting key US data
• Dollar is firmer and JPY continues to underperform; Antipodeans diverge as the AUD/NZD cross dips below 1.08.
• Bonds are pressured with overall specifics light as markets await key US events
• Crude continues to pullback along with Gold, suffering from recent strength in the Dollar and the...

• APAC stocks were mostly lower as sentiment reverberated from Wall Street's downbeat performance, while Japanese markets were away on a market holiday.
• DXY held a softer bias overnight but maintained 102+ status after taking a breather from yesterday's surge from a 101.33 low to a 102.25 peak. EUR/USD rose back above 1.0950 while USD/JPY traded on either side of 142.00.
• European equity futures are indicative of a slightly lower open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future...

• European equities are firmer, though have significantly pared much of their initial gains; US equity futures are mixed and generally more contained.
• DXY holds onto modest gains above 101.50, JPY lags
• Fixed benchmarks hold onto a negative bias ahead of a busy slate throughout the week
• Crude soars amid geopolitical tensions; Gold also gains whilst base metals are mixed
• Israel says it will pull out thousands of troops...

• European bourses are mixed whilst US futures are entirely in the red; Nike (-12.2%) shares slump in the pre-market
• Dollar remains sub-102, GBP firmer post Retail Sales and Antipodeans softer
• Fixed benchmarks are around unchanged and Gilts are muted as Retail Sales strength is offset by GDP revisions
• Crude and Spot Gold benefit from broader weakness in the Dollar whilst Base Metals are mixed
• Looking ahead, US Personal...

• APAC stocks traded with a modest positive bias following the gains on Wall Street but with gains capped ahead of the US PCE and the Christmas break.
• Nike (NKE) shares slumped over 11% after-market after guiding Q3 revenue slightly negative Y/Y, cutting FY24 revenue growth guidance, and warning of cautious consumers.
• DXY took a breather after dipping to multi-month lows overnight. The Dollar was sold on Thursday in quiet US trade with desks pointing to month-end...

• European bourses are weaker whilst US Futures are firmer, attempting to pare back the prior day's losses
• Dollar is lacklustre in holiday-thinned trade, Yen outperforms
• Fixed benchmarks are incrementally firmer with outperformance in Gilts continuing Wednesday’s CPI-driven dovish move
• Crude futures are tilting lower though within recent ranges; Spot gold remains unchanged amid similar USD action
• Looking ahead, US GDP...

• US stocks sold off in the NY afternoon with desks pointing to technical factors, hefty 0DTE put options volume, and positioning in "holiday-thinned trade".
• APAC stocks traded mostly lower as the downbeat sentiment from Wall Street reverberated despite a lack of major catalysts, although Mainland Chinese markets eventually eked out gains.
• The Biden administration is reportedly mulling raising tariffs on some Chinese goods, including EVs, WSJ sources said, in an...

• European bourses and US Futures are weaker though the FTSE 100 (+0.8%) outperforms post-CPI
• Dollar remains propped up; Pound lags after softer-than-expected CPI; Yen outperforms
• Fixed is higher led by outperformance in Gilts as attention turns to US 20yr supply
• Crude is firmer with overall specifics light; Spot Gold gives back some of yesterday's gains whilst base metals are generally in the green
• Looking ahead, EZ...

• APAC stocks traded mostly positively following the tailwinds from Wall Street, although newsflow overnight was on the quieter side amid the pre-Christmas lull.
• Nikkei 225 and JGB futures surged as APAC traders reacted to BoJ Governor Ueda's dovish press conference.
• European equity futures are indicative of a firmer cash open, with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after cash markets closed +0.3% on Tuesday.
• The US reportedly weighs whether to...