Week Ahead 1st-5th July:

• SUN: French Parliamentary Election
• MON: Canada Day; Japanese Tankan (Q2), Japanese, Chinese Caixin, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing Final PMI (June), German Prelim. CPI (June), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
• TUE: RBA Minutes (June), Australian & Canadian Manufacturing PMI Final (June), EZ Flash CPI (June), Unemployment Rate (May), US JOLTS Job Openings (May)
• WED: Riksbank Minutes...

• Price action in European equities has been choppy, but are ultimately mostly firmer; US futures are modestly firmer ahead of US PCE
• French assets underperform ahead of Sunday’s legislative elections; CAC 40 -0.4%, OATs -31 ticks, OAT-Bund yield spread above 84bps
• Dollar is flat after initially being boosted by JPY weakness & post-presidential debate
• Bonds are subdued following the Presidential debate which saw the odds of a Trump victory...

• 67% of respondents said Trump won the Presidential debate; 81% of registered voters who watched said it had no effect on their choice, 5% said it made them change their mind, via CNN.
• APAC stocks mostly higher heading into month-, quarter-, & half-end and following the positive US handover as attention turns to PCE.
• DXY strengthened as the betting odds of a Trump second term got boosted marginally, support also from USD/JPY eclipsing...

• European bourses are mixed whilst US futures are modestly in the red; Micron -5.5% after its results
• Dollar is slightly softer, Antipodeans outperform & USD/JPY holds around 160.50
• Bonds are modestly softer in a continuation of the prior day’s losses
• Crude & XAU benefit from the softer Dollar, whilst base metals remain subdued
• Looking ahead, US IJC, Durable Goods, GDP & PCE Q1 (Final), Banxico Policy...

• APAC stocks were negative amid this week's choppy tech performance with headwinds from higher yields.
• Fed Bank Stress Tests showed all banks passed, which paves the way for higher payouts.
• European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Wednesday.
• DXY pulled back below the 106 mark, USD/JPY remains above 160 and EUR/USD is stuck on a 1.06...

• European bourses higher across the board following the tech-led upside on Wall St, sectors mostly in the green though Autos lag on Volkswagen
• US futures firmer but only modestly so, awaiting Micron earnings after-hours; FedEx and Rivian bid in the pre-market
• USD/JPY breached 160.00; bringing the April 29th peak into view, a session which saw intervention and a large pullback in the pair
• DXY robust to the detriment of peers, Aussie...

• APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance stateside where tech rebounded as Nvidia snapped its losing streak.
• European equity futures indicate a firmer open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 0.2% on Tuesday.
• DXY is caged in a tight range on a 105 handle, AUD boosted post-CPI, EUR/USD sits just above the 1.07 level.
• Australian monthly CPI data saw markets price around a 33% probability for an RBA...

• European bourses are hit following updates from Airbus and Merck; US futures mixed, with the NQ leading as NVDA (+2.2%) finds its footing
• Dollar is flat, with G10 price action also lacklustre in catalyst-thin trade
• Bonds are contained awaiting impetus from US data and a 2yr auction
• Crude is modestly softer benefiting from Dollar price action, base metals are generally higher
• Looking ahead, US Philly Fed...

• APAC stocks were mostly positive but with some of the gains capped following the tech underperformance on Wall Street.
• Nvidia (-6.5%) suffered a third consecutive day of losses and was down 13% from its peak last week.
• European equity futures indicate a weaker open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.9% on Monday.
• DXY is lacklustre with FX markets broadly contained, USD/JPY remains...

• Equities are entirely in the green, benefiting from a pick-up in sentiment in the European session
• Dollar is softer, EUR is the G10 outperformer, but was initially pressured post-German Ifo, USD/JPY around 159.60
• Bonds are mixed with USTs contained, whilst Bunds slip to session lows
• Crude is incrementally firmer, XAU/base metals benefit from Dollar weakness
• Looking ahead, US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business...

• APAC stocks were predominantly subdued heading closer to month-end and US PCE data later in the week
• DXY rangebound just below 106.00, G10 peers generally contained with JPY subject to fresh jawboning
• Fixed income contained into today's German data and ECB speak; JGB futures softer
• Crude lacklustre with specific lights and unreactive to Netanyahu's latest remarks
• China and the EU have agreed to hold consultations on...

• MON: BoJ Summary of Opinions, German Ifo Survey (Jun), German Import Prices (May)
• TUE: Japanese Services PPI (May), Canadian CPI (May), UK GDP (Q1)
• WED: Australian CPI (May), German GfK Consumer Sentiment
• THU: Biden/Trump debate on CNN, Riksbank Announcement, CBRT Announcement, CNB Announcement, European Council, Chinese Industrial Profits YTD (May), EZ Sentiment Survey (Jun), US GDP Final (Q1)
• FRI: European...

• Equities are subdued amid a broader risk aversion following the downbeat EZ PMI data
• France, Germany and the EZ-wide figure all reported lower-than-expected PMI data, which has led to outperformance in Bunds and slight pressure in the EUR
• Dollar is incrementally firmer, USD/JPY went as high as 159.12 before paring back towards 158.80 following the European data
• Crude is rangebound, base metals suffer from the subdued risk...

• APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with sentiment subdued after the lacklustre handover from Wall St where tech underperformed, and risk appetite was sapped.
• DXY took a breather but held on to the prior day's spoils after strengthening on firmer yields despite soft data; USD/JPY briefly rose above 159.00.
• 10-year UST futures remained lacklustre after weakening yesterday; Bund futures were kept afloat after rebounding from support near the 132.00...

• Equities in the green and Tech leads in Europe; NQ outperforms, lifted by pre-market gains in NVDA +2.7%
• Dollar is firmer, CHF sinks after the SNB cut rates by 25bps, GBP slightly softer ahead of the BoE
• Bonds are softer, Bunds initially lifted post-SNB but has since pared, French auction passes without issue
• Crude is incrementally firmer, base metals gain amid a generally positive risk tone
• Looking ahead, US IJC...

• APAC stocks were subdued in rangebound trade amid a lack of catalysts and following the US holiday lull.
• European equity futures indicate a firmer open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Wednesday.
• DXY is steady on a 105 handle with FX markets broadly contained, Cable holds above 1.27 ahead of the BoE announcement.
• Bunds are lower, whilst crude markets are contained after WTI hit resistance...

• US stocks inched higher in rangebound trade, APAC stocks mainly positive with Hang Seng outperformance
• European futures point to a contained open, after the cash market closed higher by circa. 0.7%
• DXY contained after the deluge of Fed remarks, peers rangebound
• Crude and spot gold largely sideways while base metals benefited from the constructive US tone
• Israel's military said operational plans for an offensive in...

• European bourses are entirely in the green whilst US futures are mixed
• Dollar is firmer, AUD gains post-RBA and USD/JPY holds above 158.00
• Softer session for fixed thus far, Bunds initially boosted by ZEW but slipped on a poor German outing
• Crude is slightly softer, hampered by the softer Dollar; XAU contained
• Looking ahead, US Retail Sales & Industrial Production, NBH Policy Announcement, Comments from ECB’s...

• APAC stocks took impetus from the gains in the US where the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched record highs
• DXY steady, AUD unreactive to RBA while the JPY was unphased by Ueda
• RBA rate decision where the central bank kept rates unchanged and reiterated the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and it is not ruling anything in or out.
• Fixed benchmarks nursed some of Monday's pressure but were largely...

• European bourses are mostly firmer paring some of Friday’s pronounced downside, US futures are trading tentatively
• Dollar is flat, Antipodeans lag after weaker than expected Chinese industrial data
• Bonds are subdued paring recent EU political-induced upside on Friday, as participants digest ECB sources which suggest that the Bank is in no rush to discuss a French bond rescue
• Crude is flat in what has been a choppy session thus far, XAU/base...

• US stocks were mixed and the major indices finished off their worst levels seen early in the session alongside the broad risk-averse conditions
• APAC stocks were mostly negative as markets reflected on the latest soft Chinese data releases; European futures point to a firmer open
• DXY steady around 105.50, EUR/USD directionless & Cable below 1.27
• EGBs eased back from Friday's marked rally; ECB sources report they are in no rush to discuss...

• MON: PBoC MLF, Chinese Activity Data (May), EZ Wages and Labour Costs (Q1)
• TUE: RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, EZ Final CPI (May), German ZEW Survey (Jun), US Retail Sales (May), Japanese Trade Balance (May)
• WED: BoC Minutes, BCB Announcement, UK Inflation (May), New Zealand GDP (Q1)
• THU: BoE Announcement, PBoC LPR Announcement, SNB Announcement & Press Conference, Norges Bank Announcement & Press Conference, German...

• European bourses are entirely in the red, with sentiment hampered by ongoing political angst in the EU; US futures are also lower, RTY underperforms
• DXY is bid, benefitting from the subdued EUR which dips below 1.07 and a weak JPY post-BoJ
• The BoJ kept rates unchanged but defied expectations for an immediate reduction of bond purchases, instead, it will decide on a specific bond-buying reduction plan at the next meeting
• USTs are flat, EGBs...

• APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the mixed performance stateside where soft data took centre stage, while participants turned their attention to the BoJ policy announcement. 
• The BoJ maintained rates as expected but defied expectations for an immediate reduction of bond purchases, instead, it will decide on a specific bond-buying reduction plan at the next meeting. 
• Nikkei 225 recovered early losses, USD/JPY advanced to just shy of the 158.00 level,...

• Downbeat session for European equities whilst US futures are mixed, with NQ outperforming, propped up by pre-market gains in Tesla, Broadcom and Nvidia
• Dollar is firmer, EUR continues to test 1.08 to the downside and the JPY is the marginal underperformer
• Bonds are slightly softer as participants digest the FOMC & hawkish dot plots ahead of US PPI
• Crude is on the backfoot, XAU and base metals both lower as the Dollar continues to recoup...