Week Ahead 15th-19th July:

• MON: Republican Convention, Holiday: Japanese Marine Day, Eurogroup Meeting, Eurogroup Informal meeting of Energy Ministers; Chinese GDP (Q2), Industrial Output/Retail Sales (Jun), Swiss PPI (Jun), US NY Fed Manufacturing (Jul), EZ Industrial Production (Jun); China's Third Plenum (15-18th July)
• TUE: Republican Convention; German Wholesale Price Index (Jun), ZEW (Jul), EZ Trade Balance (May), US Export /Import Prices (Jun), Retail...

• European bourses are entirely in the green, US futures are mixed with the ES and NQ flat whilst the RTY continues to outperform
• Dollar is flat having erased earlier gains, USD/JPY back below 160 after choppy trade overnight
• Bonds are pressured giving back some of the post-CPI strength
• Crude is firmer and resides near session highs, XAU lower and base metals are mixed
• Looking ahead, US PPI, Uni. of Michigan Prelim.,...

• APAC stocks took their cues from the mixed performance stateside where softer-than-expected CPI data boosted Fed rate cut bets and spurred a stock rotation out of large-cap tech into small-cap cyclicals.
• DXY found some slight reprieve following yesterday's selling, USD/JPY swung between gains and losses in volatile trade; Nikkei said the BoJ likely conducted rate checks in EUR/JPY today.
• Fed's Daly (voter) said it is likely some policy adjustments will be warranted...

• European bourses are entirely in the green whilst US futures take a breather from the prior day’s advances
• Dollar is incrementally softer, GBP benefits from the region’s strong GDP metrics
• Bonds are flat/lower, with Treasuries standing pat as focus remains on US CPI, Gilts marginally underperform
• Crude is incrementally higher, having pared overnight gains; XAU at session highs and base metals are mixed
• Looking ahead,...

• APAC stocks took impetus from Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to fresh record highs once again.
• European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed up by 1.1% on Wednesday.
• DXY sits just below the 105 mark, antipodeans lead, Cable has held onto recent gains and USD/JPY continues to edge higher.
• BoE's Mann said that wage growth is still far away from being...

• Equities are entirely in the green and hold near session highs
• Dollar is flat and just above 105, NZD underperforms after the RBNZ kept rates unchanged but language struck a less hawkish tone
• Bonds are firmer ahead of US 10yr supply and another appearance from Chair Powell
• Crude was initially subdued following Chinese inflation data, but caught a bid on geopolitical headlines; XAU is incrementally firmer
• Looking...

• APAC stocks were mixed following the indecisive performance stateside where the major indices finished rangebound after Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script.
• DXY traded rangebound, USD/JPY continued its gradual upward trend, NZD was pressured after RBNZ, and CNY did not react to softer-than-expected Chinese CPI.
• RBNZ unsurprisingly maintained the OCR at 5.50% although its language was less hawkish as it added that the extent of restraint will be tempered...

• European equities are mostly lower, US futures are modestly in the green ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony
• Dollar is flat and G10s are uneventful vs the Dollar, though the Kiwi lags
• Bonds are lower, with focus today on Fed Chair Powell and US 3yr supply
• Crude is subdued and near session lows, XAU nurses recent losses
• Looking ahead, NFIB Business Optimism Index, Comments from Fed’s Powell, Barr & Bowman,...

• APAC stocks were mixed as the region only partially sustained the positive mood seen in the US where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 extended on record highs.
• European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed down by 0.2% on Monday.
• DXY lingers around the 105 mark, USD/JPY eyes 161 to the upside with FX markets broadly contained.
• Hamas said Israel's PM Netanyahu is placing hurdles...

• European bourses are entirely in the green, paring initial losses as markets digest the fallout from the French second-round parliamentary election
• French second-round election results pointed to a hung parliament in which the left-wing New Popular Front surprisingly won the most seats followed by Macron's centrists and with the far-right National Rally in third place
• DXY is incrementally softer & EUR scales back initial French-induced...

• APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region failed to resume the momentum from last Friday's dovish post-NFP reaction, while the weekend macro news flow was light aside from the French election results.
• EUR/USD was mildly pressured after the French second-round election results pointed to a hung parliament in which the left-wing New Popular Front surprisingly won the most seats followed by Macron's centrists and with the far-right National Rally in third...

Week Ahead 7th-12th July:

• SUN: French Election (second round)
• MON: CNB Minutes (June), Eurogroup Informal meeting of Competitiveness Ministers; Japanese Overtime Pay (May), German Trade Data (May), EZ Sentix Index (July), BoI Announcement, US Employment Trends
• TUE: BoJ Bond Meeting 9-10, EIA STEO; Australian Consumer Sentiment, Hungarian CPI (June), Mexican 12-month Inflation (June), Powell Testimony...

• European bourses have been tilting higher with the region benefitting from the removal of some political risk in the UK, Germany & France
• Stateside, futures pivoting the unchanged mark into Payrolls
• FX has seen a slightly softer start for the USD, weighed on by EUR & GBP; USD/JPY slips to near 160.50
• Fixed benchmarks generally firmer but only modestly so, EGBs unreactive to data and German fiscal...

• APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed in the absence of a lead from the US owing to the Independence Day holiday. 
• There was also a lack of fireworks from the UK election exit polls, with the latest results showing that the Labour Party has won a majority as expected.  
• DXY briefly dipped under 105 with quiet macro newsflow ahead of NFP, GBP/USD traded flat within a tight 1.2755-72 range, and USD/JPY slid beneath the 161.00 level with early pressure seen...

• APAC stocks traded mostly higher as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street where the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq notched fresh record closes once again heading into US Independence Day.
• Fed Minutes stated that most saw the current policy stance as restrictive and several participants said if inflation were to persist at an elevated level or rise further, the Fed Funds Rate might need to be raised, while a number of participants said that policy should stand ready to respond to...

• European bourses are higher across the board as the region catches up to the Wall St. handover and continues generally strong APAC performance
• DXY under pressure and holding near the 105.59 low with peers generally firmer as the USD continues to feel the weight of Powell's remarks and looks to the mentioned data deluge
• OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed to below 68bps at best, though is still circa. 20bps above pre-election levels; largely unreactive to...

• APAC stocks mostly took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes.
• European equity futures indicate a firmer open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Tuesday.
• DXY remains sub-106, EUR/USD has pivoted around the 1.0750 mark, USD/JPY is in close proximity to its multi-decade high.
• Bunds have edged mild gains, oil futures were supported by a large draw in...

• European bourses pressured despite a lack of fresh drivers with US futures softer ahead of Chair Powell
• DXY firmer and above 106.00, USD/JPY hit another peak of 161.75, EUR unreactive to HICP
• EGBs slipped incrementally on sticky super-core EZ HICP but remain near the unchanged mark overall, USTs slightly firmer
• Crude continues to climb while XAU pivots its 21-DMA and base metals lift marginally
• ECB's Lane said...

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed amid the backdrop of rising global yields and recent soft US data.
• European equity futures indicate a slightly lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Monday.
• DXY is steady and just below the 106 mark, USD/JPY printed another multi-decade high, antipodeans lag.
• Crude futures marginally extended on their best levels in more than two month, Bunds...

• French Election 1st round saw National Rally make significant gains but the odds of another hung parliament have likely increased
• Sparking outperformance in French-related assets with OATs, CAC 40 & EUR all supported, though the magnitude of this has trimmed into another week of political uncertainty and a still challenging fiscal backdrop
• US futures generally firmer but with some slight pressure in chip names led by Nvidia
• EUR the FX...

• France’s far-right won the first round of the French parliamentary election, according to estimates. However, expectations are mixed over whether they will secure a majority. 
• EUR is the best performing currency across the majors and OATS are firmer by circa 16 ticks and CAC 40 future +1.1%, with some citing relief over the potential lack of majority for Le Pen.
• European equity futures indicate a higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.4% after the first round...

Week Ahead 1st-5th July:

• SUN: French Parliamentary Election
• MON: Canada Day; Japanese Tankan (Q2), Japanese, Chinese Caixin, EZ, UK & US Manufacturing Final PMI (June), German Prelim. CPI (June), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
• TUE: RBA Minutes (June), Australian & Canadian Manufacturing PMI Final (June), EZ Flash CPI (June), Unemployment Rate (May), US JOLTS Job Openings (May)
• WED: Riksbank Minutes...

• Price action in European equities has been choppy, but are ultimately mostly firmer; US futures are modestly firmer ahead of US PCE
• French assets underperform ahead of Sunday’s legislative elections; CAC 40 -0.4%, OATs -31 ticks, OAT-Bund yield spread above 84bps
• Dollar is flat after initially being boosted by JPY weakness & post-presidential debate
• Bonds are subdued following the Presidential debate which saw the odds of a Trump victory...

• 67% of respondents said Trump won the Presidential debate; 81% of registered voters who watched said it had no effect on their choice, 5% said it made them change their mind, via CNN.
• APAC stocks mostly higher heading into month-, quarter-, & half-end and following the positive US handover as attention turns to PCE.
• DXY strengthened as the betting odds of a Trump second term got boosted marginally, support also from USD/JPY eclipsing...

• European bourses are mixed whilst US futures are modestly in the red; Micron -5.5% after its results
• Dollar is slightly softer, Antipodeans outperform & USD/JPY holds around 160.50
• Bonds are modestly softer in a continuation of the prior day’s losses
• Crude & XAU benefit from the softer Dollar, whilst base metals remain subdued
• Looking ahead, US IJC, Durable Goods, GDP & PCE Q1 (Final), Banxico Policy...